Peering into the Murky Crystal Ball – Part 2

In Part 2 – The Inconclusives, the second in this special three-part series, Executive Coach and freelance blogger for The Slade Report, David Simpson, offers some observations on the factors at play in determining the new normal. In case you missed it, click here for Part 1 – The Inevitables.

The Inconclusives

  1. Objective Truth or Limbaugh’s Four Pillars of Deceit

The explosion of on-line information sources and the Balkanization of media reporting in the 24/7 news cycle has ushered in an era of “believe what you want to believe” versus a focus on objective truth (that is self-evident). Nowhere is this more apparent than in post Trump America, but greater reliance on partisan narratives is a worldwide phenomenon.

A significant portion of the US population believe academia, science, government and the fake news media are the enemy of the people, perpetrating hoaxes (like global warming) to limit personal freedom. Playing fast and loose with the “facts” has somehow been accepted as a part of modern life. Digestible sound bites have become the currency of political debate.

The notion of using technology as a filter to factor out bias in order to provide a truly objective reporting of the facts is an interesting one… but raises the following questions: “How many are actually seeking that objectivity?” and  “How many would remain perfectly comfortable having their own preconceptions reinforced?”

  1. Urbanisation or the Escape to the Country

Up until March it was a foregone conclusion that cities would continue to grow. Being under home lockdown, particularly in urban centres most vulnerable to the virus, has many of those in self-quarantine questioning the expense and inconvenience of big city living. As well, those who have decamped to more rural situations for distancing reasons have been reacquainted with the advantages of a slower pace.

If the move to a more virtual mobile lifestyle does in fact become a reality and workers are actively discouraged from commuting to their desks, the choice of domicile opens up. If you can work from anywhere and have anything delivered to your door, do you need to live in Detroit, Dusseldorf or Doha?

In this scenario the less salubrious urban centres will see an exodus of mobile workers. Those of cultural or historic significance like New York, Paris and Shanghai would likely maintain their appeal, but less as commercial hubs and more as experiential destinations (or idylls for the rich and famous).

  1. Domestication of Manufacturing

The world’s over reliance on China’s production capacity and the supply chain vulnerabilities that exist when a Wuhan occurs have been brought to light. This has led nations to start to challenge their assumptions about “just in time” inventory control, access to essential goods and services as well as the prudence of strategic stockpiling.

Ironically, the Trump MAGA cry of “I’m bringing back manufacturing jobs to America” may gain some broader currency courtesy of COVID-19. It seems unlikely that car making will return to Australia, steel plants to the US or cheap garment making to Italy. Nevertheless, the local production of small run, vital commodities like pharmaceuticals, food products and precision engineered components might become viable again if access to them is seen as critical. Resistance due to higher cost may be somewhat mitigated if high unemployment levels put downward pressure on labour rates. Having said that, with the advent of micro manufacturing, turnkey robotics and 3D printing, it is unlikely that such installations would require much physical manpower.

Continue reading: Part 3 – The Imponderables

David Simpson

David Simpson has been a past CEO of global organisations, working in cities across North America, South Africa, China, Japan and Australia. A little bit of distance is often a good thing, and now he also has time to recast lessons from the past and paint us some future scenarios.

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