Crystal balls, lies and damn statistics

We sometimes think we have it hard — working with the variable nature of human beings all day, every day. But I’d rather deal with talent ahead of economic forecasting any day.
What’s your sense of 2014? Here’s a quick snapshot from some of our economic gurus.
Dun & Bradstreet
Employers expect to see a surge in hiring activity in the New Year, with twice as many planning to recruit new staff compared to the December quarter, according to new figures from business analyst Dun & Bradstreet. Some 10% of employers plan to take on new staff in the three months to March, compared to just 4% in the previous quarter, according to the survey of more than 800 businesses.
Westpac Australia
Overall this report emphasises that the Australian economy is likely to require further stimulus in order for growth to lift back towards trend. We believe that the Reserve Bank in forecasting 2.5% (below trend) growth in 2014 is of a similar mind.
Westpac NZ
The economy will grow almost 4% next year, helped along by a strong population gain from surging migration, according to Westpac Bank’s latest predictions.
Macquarie
Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican expects resource export volumes to steadily increase and continue to provide support for economic growth. Mr Redican predicts the trade balance will shift into surplus over the next 12 months, as more mining and resources projects go on line and start producing and exporting.
Reserve Bank of Australia
The jobless rate will increase to 6.25% by Q2 2014.
VECCI
Expectations for the December quarter are that selling prices, exports and profitability will begin to recover and may therefore lead to an investment pick up in the second half of 2014. At present, there still appears to be excess capacity in many businesses, with 50% of surveyed respondents reporting that they are not operating at a satisfactory level of capacity.
At Slade, we see a flat-lining arrow showing up in our crystal ball. Much as we’d like to be bullish, we hear too many organisations continue to struggle to make profit and that means that confidence and hiring intentions are flat.
What’s your Point of View for 2014?

 

Geoff Slade

Geoff Slade has worked at the forefront of the Recruitment industry for over 40 years. He is the Executive Chairman of Slade Group and was awarded a Centenary Medal for services to the industry.

Geoff Slade
Chairman
Slade Group
Level 7, 15 William Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
Tel: +61 3 9235 5100
gslade@sladegroup.com.au
sladegroup.com.au

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